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Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead
Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges from its third post 2009 slowdown. As a follow-up to our July article, Recovery or...
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Adding to Gains
We are pleased to report your portfolio [1](adjusted for withdrawals) outperformed the major U.S. stock market indices, which made modest upside progress this quarter. Your portfolio once again reached new all-time highs[1]! Economic growth is chugging right along on...
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Our LEI Hits a New High
The Pring Turner Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) comprises a weighted ROC for three key economic sectors and a financial one. These are construction, consumer spending, employment and the stock market. It has led every recession since its inception in the 1950’s. To...
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The Stock Market Beach Ball
If you have ever gone to the beach or played in a pool and pushed a beach ball under water, you can appreciate how we associate current stock market conditions with that beach ball. When the ball is pushed under water, pressure begins to build. The farther under water...
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Is the Bond Pendulum Set to Swing Yields Higher?
The chart of the month (below) compares the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its 12-month ROC. This oscillator is like a pendulum of a clock as it is continually swinging between an overstretched overbought +25% reading to a -25% oversold one. The arrows demonstrate...
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Climbing the “Wall of Worry”
Stock and bond prices added to strong first quarter gains and, once again, carried your portfolio[1] (adjusted for withdrawals) to new all-time highs! The gains were briefly interrupted in May when stock prices corrected due, in part, to several troublesome...
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