The Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment normally peaks well before recessions. It typically coincides or leads housing starts and is poised to break out to new high territory. A KST (smoothed long-term momentum) uptick and a trendline break by the price oscillator suggests it will.
Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment 1998-2019
Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Pring Research
My Leading Housing indicator is constructed from the relationship between housing starts and swings in interest rates. This series has just turned up in the last couple of months. The green arrows show that, except for the unduly early 2007 reversal a rise in the indicator has typically been followed by a rally in the homebuilders.
Sources: Reuters, Pring Research
Disclaimer: The views expressed herein represent the opinions of the Investment Advisor, are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment. These views are presented as of the date hereof and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. Neither the Investment Advisor, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. Recipients of the information contained herein should exercise due care and caution prior to making any decision or acting or omitting to act on the basis of the information contained herein.
Disclaimer: Pring Turner is a Financial Advisor headquartered in Walnut Creek CA, and is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The views represented herein are Pring Turner’s own and all information is obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. This information should not be considered a solicitation or offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Articles filed under Martin Pring's Technical Corner
September 8, 2020 - The S&P Composite has rallied close to 60% since late March, making a historic and remarkable round trip in a short period of time. You would think that after such a move it would make sense to anticipate a significant... Continue Reading
June 9, 2020 - Where Have We Been? Back in February the stock market registered new highs. At the same time, several of the leading indicators we follow were tentatively signaling the emergence of the economy from its third growth slowdown since the financial... Continue Reading
May 7, 2020 - Chart 1 below compares the S&P to our Master Economic Indicator (MEI). It combines the momentum of six leading economic indicators and comes into its own when economic activity causes it to drop below the -40% level and then moves... Continue Reading
January 6, 2020 - A large part of the Pring Turner investment approach is derived from the fact that the business cycle is nothing more or less than a repetitive chronological sequence of events. The cycle begins with a bottoming in the interest sensitive... Continue Reading
October 17, 2019 - Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges from its third post 2009 slowdown. As a follow-up to our July... Continue Reading