The Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment normally peaks well before recessions. It typically coincides or leads housing starts and is poised to break out to new high territory. A KST (smoothed long-term momentum) uptick and a trendline break by the price oscillator suggests it will.
Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment 1998-2019
Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Pring Research
My Leading Housing indicator is constructed from the relationship between housing starts and swings in interest rates. This series has just turned up in the last couple of months. The green arrows show that, except for the unduly early 2007 reversal a rise in the indicator has typically been followed by a rally in the homebuilders.
Sources: Reuters, Pring Research
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Disclaimer: Pring Turner is a Financial Advisor headquartered in Walnut Creek CA, and is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The views represented herein are Pring Turner’s own and all information is obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. This information should not be considered a solicitation or offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Articles filed under Martin Pring's Technical Corner
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