The Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment normally peaks well before recessions. It typically coincides or leads housing starts and is poised to break out to new high territory. A KST (smoothed long-term momentum) uptick and a trendline break by the price oscillator suggests it will.

Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment 1998-2019

Sources: National Association of Home Builders, Pring Research

My Leading Housing indicator is constructed from the relationship between housing starts and swings in interest rates. This series has just turned up in the last couple of months. The green arrows show that, except for the unduly early 2007 reversal a rise in the indicator has typically been followed by a rally in the homebuilders.


Sources: Reuters, Pring Research


Cover Photo by Henry & Co. on Unsplash

Disclaimer: The views expressed herein represent the opinions of the Investment Advisor, are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment. These views are presented as of the date hereof and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. Neither the Investment Advisor, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. Recipients of the information contained herein should exercise due care and caution prior to making any decision or acting or omitting to act on the basis of the information contained herein.

Disclaimer: Pring Turner is a Financial Advisor headquartered in Walnut Creek CA, and is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The views represented herein are Pring Turner’s own and all information is obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. This information should not be considered a solicitation or offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Martin Pring
Martin Pring
Martin J. Pring has written more than 20 books on investing such as asset allocation, market psychology and investing around the business cycle. His widely popular book, “Technical Analysis Explained”, has been translated into 8 languages and for several decades was required reading for the Chartered Market Technician’s (CMT) designation. Martin, in collaboration with Dow Jones Indexes, co-developed the Dow Jones Pring U.S. Business Cycle Index in 2012, a unique index based on the financial advisory firm’s “Six-Stage” business cycle investment strategy. Martin is an investment strategist & principal of Pring Turner Investment Management, Walnut Creek, CA.

Connect with Martin.

Continue Reading

Articles filed under Martin Pring's Technical Corner

Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead

October 17, 2019 - Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges from its third post 2009 slowdown. As a follow-up to our July... Continue Reading

Our LEI Hits a New High

October 2, 2019 - The Pring Turner Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) comprises a weighted ROC for three key economic sectors and a financial one. These are construction, consumer spending, employment and the stock market. It has led every recession since its inception in the... Continue Reading

The Stock Market Beach Ball

September 5, 2019 - If you have ever gone to the beach or played in a pool and pushed a beach ball under water, you can appreciate how we associate current stock market conditions with that beach ball. When the ball is pushed under... Continue Reading

Is the Bond Pendulum Set to Swing Yields Higher?

August 8, 2019 - The chart of the month (below) compares the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its 12-month ROC. This oscillator is like a pendulum of a clock as it is continually swinging between an overstretched overbought +25% reading to a -25% oversold... Continue Reading

Recovery or Recession? Ask the Stock Market Stupid!

July 1, 2019 - Even though there has been no recession for 10 years, students of the business cycle know that it is still alive and well. Instead of a full-blown contraction in business activity, the last decade has seen the US economy experience... Continue Reading