New Highs for the Pring Turner Leading Indicator Suggests Low Risk of Recession Today

Most severe stock market declines (-20% or more) have occurred during economic recessions. For individuals in retirement it is especially critical to avoid recession driven market declines in order to effectively secure a stable retirement lifestyle. Recovering from these big losses can be a difficult and highly stressful endeavor.  That is one very important reason why our financial advisory firm closely follow the natural rhythm of business cycle swings and stay on alert for the next major turning point in the economy.

The Pring Turner Leading Economic Indicator featured above is a leading indicator for the economy designed to signal the onset of recession months in advance. What is this reliable forecast tool telling us now? The latest reading has pushed this leading economic indicator to new highs, and momentum is re-accelerating to the upside signaling low risk of recession in the months directly ahead. Continued economic strength should translate into higher stock prices. In other words, there is no recession in sight that would change our longer term optimistic view for stocks.

Disclaimer: Pring Turner is a Financial Advisor headquartered in Walnut Creek CA, and is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The views represented herein are Pring Turner’s own and all information is obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. This information should not be considered a solicitation or offer to provide any service in any jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. All indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Martin Pring
Martin Pring
Martin J. Pring has written more than 20 books on investing such as asset allocation, market psychology and investing around the business cycle. His widely popular book, “Technical Analysis Explained”, has been translated into 8 languages and for several decades was required reading for the Chartered Market Technician’s (CMT) designation. Martin, in collaboration with Dow Jones Indexes, co-developed the Dow Jones Pring U.S. Business Cycle Index in 2012, a unique index based on the financial advisory firm’s “Six-Stage” business cycle investment strategy. Martin is an investment strategist & principal of Pring Turner Investment Management, Walnut Creek, CA.

Connect with Martin.

Continue Reading

Articles filed under Martin Pring's Technical Corner

Five Reasons for Being Bullish Despite a 60% Advance

September 8, 2020 - The S&P Composite has rallied close to 60% since late March, making a historic and remarkable round trip in a short period of time. You would think that after such a move it would make sense to anticipate a significant... Continue Reading

The May Employment Report was a Blowout but What’s Next?

June 9, 2020 - Where Have We Been? Back in February the stock market registered new highs. At the same time, several of the leading indicators we follow were tentatively signaling the emergence of the economy from its third growth slowdown since the financial... Continue Reading

Economy Drops at an Unprecedented Rate but Could be Close to an Upside Reversal

May 7, 2020 - Chart 1 below compares the S&P to our Master Economic Indicator (MEI). It combines the momentum of six leading economic indicators and comes into its own when economic activity causes it to drop below the -40% level and then moves... Continue Reading

Our Business Cycle Work is Close to signaling a Stage III. Guess Which Market That’s Bullish for?

January 6, 2020 - A large part of the Pring Turner investment approach is derived from the fact that the business cycle is nothing more or less than a repetitive chronological sequence of events. The cycle begins with a bottoming in the interest sensitive... Continue Reading

Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead

October 17, 2019 - Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges from its third post 2009 slowdown. As a follow-up to our July... Continue Reading