Last year presented us with the largest consensus of economists forecasting an imminent recession that we ever recall. Contrary opinion theory says that when people start to...
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Recession
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Are You Prepared for A Possible Lost Decade Ahead?
Growing Evidence the Secular Trend in Stock Prices May be Reversing While it is true in the very long run stocks go up, it is also true that secular bear markets are a fact of...
The Bursting of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles—Part II
In March of last year, I wrote an article entitled “Timing the End of the Tech and Bitcoin Bubbles”. The conclusion for Bitcoin was that it was indeed in a bubble but that there...
Burglar or Bank Robber? Time to Watch Your Wallet and Stock Portfolio!
In October 2021, we made the case for a new secular commodity bull market and concluded that this environment would likely spill back into the economy and stock market. That...
Impending Super Cycle Commodity Signal Argues Against Transitory Inflation
Aging demographics, technological innovation and an ever -expanding debt overhang are three reasons why inflation has been largely kept under wraps in the last three decades....
Five Charts that Make the Case for a Bull Market in Commodities
A year ago, as the economy was emerging from its third slowdown following the financial crisis, commodity prices looked set to move higher. However, due to the pandemic lockdown,...
Five Reasons for Being Bullish Despite a 60% Advance
The S&P Composite has rallied close to 60% since late March, making a historic and remarkable round trip in a short period of time. You would think that after such a move it...
The May Employment Report was a Blowout but What’s Next?
Where Have We Been? Back in February the stock market registered new highs. At the same time, several of the leading indicators we follow were tentatively signaling the emergence...
Economy Drops at an Unprecedented Rate but Could be Close to an Upside Reversal
Chart 1 below compares the S&P to our Master Economic Indicator (MEI). It combines the momentum of six leading economic indicators and comes into its own when economic...
Our Business Cycle Work is Close to signaling a Stage III. Guess Which Market That’s Bullish for?
A large part of the Pring Turner investment approach is derived from the fact that the business cycle is nothing more or less than a repetitive chronological sequence of events....
Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead
Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges...
Our LEI Hits a New High
The Pring Turner Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) comprises a weighted ROC for three key economic sectors and a financial one. These are construction, consumer spending,...