The S&P Composite has rallied close to 60% since late March, making a historic and remarkable round trip in a short period of time. You would think that after such a move it...
Five Reasons for Being Bullish Despite a 60% Advance
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The May Employment Report was a Blowout but What’s Next?
Where Have We Been? Back in February the stock market registered new highs. At the same time, several of the leading indicators we follow were tentatively signaling the emergence...
Economy Drops at an Unprecedented Rate but Could be Close to an Upside Reversal
Chart 1 below compares the S&P to our Master Economic Indicator (MEI). It combines the momentum of six leading economic indicators and comes into its own when economic...
Our Business Cycle Work is Close to signaling a Stage III. Guess Which Market That’s Bullish for?
A large part of the Pring Turner investment approach is derived from the fact that the business cycle is nothing more or less than a repetitive chronological sequence of events....
Recession Watch Update: Four Leading Economic Indicators Signal a Stronger Economy Ahead
Even though we have already experienced the longest expansion on record, the latest data suggest the possibility of a resurging level of business activity as the economy emerges...
Our LEI Hits a New High
The Pring Turner Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) comprises a weighted ROC for three key economic sectors and a financial one. These are construction, consumer spending,...
The Stock Market Beach Ball
If you have ever gone to the beach or played in a pool and pushed a beach ball under water, you can appreciate how we associate current stock market conditions with that beach...
Is the Bond Pendulum Set to Swing Yields Higher?
The chart of the month (below) compares the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its 12-month ROC. This oscillator is like a pendulum of a clock as it is continually swinging between...
Recovery or Recession? Ask the Stock Market Stupid!
Even though there has been no recession for 10 years, students of the business cycle know that it is still alive and well. Instead of a full-blown contraction in business...
Latest Housing Data Offers Some Green Shoots
The Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment normally peaks well before recessions. It typically coincides or leads housing starts and is poised to break out to new high territory. A KST...
The Big Blow-off Before the Big Blow-out?
US stock prices are currently reflecting an exceptionally high level of confidence. Certainly much higher than when we wrote our August 2016 article Stocks Are Breaking the Glass...
What Would It Take to Trigger a Secular Reversal in Bond Yields?
In the fall of 1981, the twenty-year US bond yield peaked slightly above 15% and has been zig zagging down through each successive business cycle since. During the last one...