If you have ever gone to the beach or played in a pool and pushed a beach ball under water, you can appreciate how we associate current stock market conditions with that beach...
The Stock Market Beach Ball
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Is the Bond Pendulum Set to Swing Yields Higher?
The chart of the month (below) compares the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its 12-month ROC. This oscillator is like a pendulum of a clock as it is continually swinging between...
Recovery or Recession? Ask the Stock Market Stupid!
Even though there has been no recession for 10 years, students of the business cycle know that it is still alive and well. Instead of a full-blown contraction in business...
Latest Housing Data Offers Some Green Shoots
The Wells Fargo Housing Sentiment normally peaks well before recessions. It typically coincides or leads housing starts and is poised to break out to new high territory. A KST...
The Big Blow-off Before the Big Blow-out?
US stock prices are currently reflecting an exceptionally high level of confidence. Certainly much higher than when we wrote our August 2016 article Stocks Are Breaking the Glass...
What Would It Take to Trigger a Secular Reversal in Bond Yields?
In the fall of 1981, the twenty-year US bond yield peaked slightly above 15% and has been zig zagging down through each successive business cycle since. During the last one...
Good News Investors: Low Risk of Recession Today
New Highs for the Pring Turner Leading Indicator Suggests Low Risk of Recession Today Most severe stock market declines (-20% or more) have occurred during economic recessions....
When will Rising Rates Deliver a Knockout Blow to an Overvalued Stock Market?
A major anxiety amongst stock market participants revolves around two key factors that appear to be on a collision course. The first is an overvalued stock market. The second, is...
A Turn in the Tide: The Case for Rising Interest Rates
The purpose of this article is to make the case for a primary trend rise in yields. If this assumption turns out to be correct, it is within the realm of possibilities that this...
Stocks Are Breaking the Glass Ceiling: 6 Reasons to Be Bullish
At the beginning of 2000, I unsuccessfully submitted a bearish stock market article, A Turn of the Tide, to a well-known US financial publisher. At the time, in the middle of a...
The Win-Win Case for a Bull Market in Gold—Part I
For years I have always thought of the gold price as a discounting mechanism for inflation. In recent months though, the price has rallied sharply under what appears to be a...